# Full Investment Committee Memo: Spatial Walk (北京空间步态科技)

**Date:** 2026-03-22
**Project Code:** SPW-2026-A
**Status:** **NOT RECOMMENDED** (High Valuation, Low Moat, Significant Financial Risk)

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## I. Executive Summary
Spatial Walk is a Beijing-based startup building an interactive platform for 3D digital humans based on 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Founded by top-tier researchers behind AD-NeRF and SadTalker, the company has raised significantly at a $120M valuation. However, the core rendering technology is being commoditized by Meta and Qualcomm SDKs. With a 100x P/S ratio and only 5-7 months of runway, the company faces an imminent liquidity crisis unless a pivot to high-margin interactive services is achieved immediately.

## II. Company Overview
- **Founded:** Late 2023 / Early 2024
- **Headquarters:** Beijing, China
- **Focus:** Real-time interactive 3DGS digital humans and mobile-end spatial computing engines.
- **Key Products:** 3DGS "Interactive AI Agent" platform (Beta), mobile optimization SDKs.

## III. Team
- **Founders:** Yudong Guo (USTC Professor) and Xiaodong Cun (GBU). Known for AD-NeRF and SadTalker [Tier S research influence].
- **Analysis:** High technical alpha, but severe "academic risk." Founders' dual roles create IP entanglement and commitment concerns.
- **Confidence Level:** 🟡 Medium (Strong CVs, questionable FTE status).

## IV. Market Opportunity
- **Sector:** Spatial Computing & AI Digital Humans.
- **Problem:** Existing 3DGS models are static or computationally expensive for low-end mobile devices.
- **Opportunity:** Low-latency interaction (lipsync/animation) on consumer-grade hardware.
- **Threat:** Rapid commoditization. As spatial OS (Apple AVP, Meta Horizon) integrates 3DGS natively, the market for standalone engines shrinks.
- **Confidence Level:** 🔴 Low (Market is being eaten by platform owners).

## V. Product & Technology
- **Technology:** 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) with a focus on AD-NeRF-inspired facial animation.
- **Claims:** Real-time performance on low-end chips (RK3576).
- **Moat:** Diminishing. The "rendering engine" is no longer a sustainable moat; only the "interaction/animation" layer remains a potential differentiator.
- **Tier Assessment:** [Tier B] - Claims are documented but unverified against latest 2025 platform SDKs.

## VI. Competitive Landscape
- **Big Tech:** Meta (Presence Platform), Qualcomm (Snapdragon Spaces), Apple (RealityKit). All offer free or low-cost system-level 3DGS support.
- **Startups:** Luma AI, Postshot, and HeyGen (2D-gen competitor).
- **Positioning:** Spatial Walk is trapped between high-quality 2D-video competitors and "free" 3D system-level tools.

## VII. Traction & Financial Overview
- **Revenue:** ~$1.2M (Fiscal Year 2025). High likelihood of being project-based/custom services rather than recurring SaaS.
- **Valuation:** $120M (100x P/S). This is a "Pricing for Perfection" scenario in a "Down-Market" climate.
- **Burn Rate:** ~$700k/month.
- **Runway:** 5-7 months (Critical liquidity gap).
- **Confidence Level:** 🟢 High (Financial data suggests a cliff).

## VIII. Investment Merits (Bull Case)
1. **IP Acquisition:** If the company can be acquired for its interactive animation IP (AD-NeRF delta) by a hardware player.
2. **Mobile Optimization:** Superior performance on low-end ARM chips could win specific B2B IoT/Display contracts.

## IX. Risk Factors & Mitigants
- **Risk:** **Commoditization by SDKs.** (Mitigant: Pivot to interaction/agentic layer).
- **Risk:** **Funding Cliff.** (Mitigant: Aggressive cost-cutting and bridge round).
- **Risk:** **Academic IP.** (Mitigant: Formal audit and university licensing agreements).

## X. Valuation & Returns Analysis
At a 100x P/S multiple, there is no margin for error. A standard VC exit of 10x return would require $120M in revenue (assuming a 10x P/S exit). Current growth trajectory does not support this without a radical shift in business model.

## XI. Recommendation & Next Steps
**Verdict: PASS.**

**Rationale:**
1. **Financial Insustainability:** $700k/mo burn on $1.2M annual revenue with <7 months runway is lethal in the current market.
2. **Moat Erosion:** The company’s original core value (rendering) is now a feature of the OS.
3. **Valuation:** The $120M entry price is disconnected from current market realities for "SDK Wrapper" businesses.

**Next Steps (If reconsidering):**
1. Audit the IP ownership of AD-NeRF/SadTalker improvements.
2. Verify FTE status of founders.
3. Perform a rigorous benchmark of Spatial Walk vs. Meta Presence Platform (v72+) rendering quality/speed.

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**Sources:**
- [S] AD-NeRF/SadTalker Academic Papers (arXiv)
- [A] Internal analysis of 2024/2025 Qualcomm/Meta SDK releases
- [B] Spatial Walk website/financial data summaries
- [S] CAC (Cyberspace Administration of China) AI regulations (GB 45438-2025)